Yes it’s true… even though Kings XI Punjab have lost their last match to Chennai Super Kings, they are still in the race for the Semifinals. In my post “How can Kings XI Punjab reach the IPL 2 Semifinals?” yesterday, I did mention this scenario.
Let us first have a look at the current points
|
Team |
Mat |
Won |
Lost |
Tied |
N/R |
Pts |
Net RR |
For |
Against |
| Delhi Daredevils | 13 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | +0.251 | 1812/237.5 | 1788/242.4 |
| Chennai | 14 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | +0.951 | 2086/255.3 | 1855/257.1 |
| Deccan Chargers | 13 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | +0.265 | 1953/252.4 | 1927/258.1 |
| Bangalore | 13 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | -0.253 | 1824/256.0 | 1869/253.2 |
| Kings XI Punjab | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | -0.483 | 1787/251.2 | 1887/248.3 |
| Rajasthan Royals | 14 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | -0.352 | 1688/253.1 | 1810/257.5 |
| Mumbai Indians | 13 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 11 | +0.401 | 1732/236.2 | 1636/236.1 |
| Kolkata | 14 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -0.789 | 1757/248.5 | 1867/237.5 |
Pay special attention to the points of Kings XI Punjab, Deccan Chargers and Royal Challengers Bangalore. All the teams are currently at par with 14 points. When Deccan Chargers and Royal Challengers Bangalore play against each other today evening, the winning team will clearly make it to the Semifinal. The losing side will end up with 14 points on the table along with Kings XI Punjab, and in this case the Net Run Rate will decide who makes it to the Semifinal against Delhi Daredevils – who are at the top of the table.
In case, Deccan Royal Challengers lose today’s match, it will be really difficult for Kings XI Punjab (Net Run Rate of -.483) to beat Deccan Chargers (Current Net Run Rate of +0.265) and make it to the Semifinals.
In case, Bangalore Royal Challengers lose the match, it could be a tricky situation as the Net Run Rate could play a major part and Kings XI Punjab might just get through to the Semifinals.
Well, Deccan Royal Challengers and Royal Challengers Bangalore might even be praying for a complete wash out of the match by rains, so that both the teams end up with 15 points each and comfortably reach the Semifinals, without the risk of the pressure match.
Illustration on how bleak or sound are the chances for Kings XI Punjab to make it to the Semifinals?
Let us assume Royal Challengers Bangalore lose the match against Deccan Chargers and try to find how the stats could decide Kings XI Punjab’s fate.
|
If Deccan chargers play first… |
| Let’s assume Deccan Chargers score 150 runs in 20 overs |
| Now, Royal Challengers Bangalore need to score at least 89 runs in 20 overs to still make it to the Semifinals outperforming Kings XI Punjab on the Net Run Rate. |
|
If Royal Challengers Bangalore play first… |
| Let’s assume Royal Challengers Bangalore score 150 runs in 20 overs |
| Now Royal Challengers Bangalore need to make sure that if Deccan Chargers win the match they should make 151 (or 156 to be on a safer side) in not less than 12 overs so that Royal Challengers Bangalore still get into the Semifinal outperforming Kings XI Punjab on the Net Run Rate. |
Going by this illustration, chances of Kings XI Punjab making it to the Semifinals are very bleak.
Side Talks: The faces of Preeti Zinta and Shilpa Shetty throughout the tournament were live commentary of the fate of their teams. Both of them were caught in private moments of despair on the big screen after their respective matches. Sadly, for Shilpa Shetty the campaign got over last night, while Preeti Zinta would still be hoping for a miracle.
